Tales of the Thames

• Along with more than one hundred other walkers, Bull and Bear joined Boost’s Thames Bridges Walk on Friday.

• The route took them along the Thames Path from Kew Bridge to Tower Bridge … criss-crossing over all the bridges in-between.

• They are both amazed by the sheer scale of the regeneration that has taken place over the past forty years … transforming redundant docks, piers, and toxic industrial land into impressive mixed community, residential, leisure, cultural and commercial districts.

• All-in-all, it makes them proud to live and work in London.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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Time for a Hydration Break

• As World cup fever builds, Bull & Bear bemoan the extreme heat and the inertia in the UK property market.

• Bull is adamant that there is no shortage of capital from willing buyers, but instead believes that sellers are unwilling to test the market amidst a backdrop of geo-political and macroeconomic uncertainty.  The result is market friction and a chronic lack of stock.  

• Bear agrees that the US-Iran conflict has held up investment activity, but is convinced that underlying pricing will need to adjust before deal flows increase. 

• After some healthy debate, the pair conclude that there is a risk of downside valuation movements in the short term, but that pricing is still underpinned by investor conviction for the sector.

• In the meantime, all eyes will be on the Three Lions as they enter the knockout stages. 

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A Rallying Call

Bull attended a fascinating breakfast meeting earlier this week with a fantastic mix of leaders from across the property, fund management and infrastructure industries.

• His main takeaways, which have morphed into a rallying call, were:

• Property still merits a place in investors’ diversified portfolios. 

• Investment appetite for the sector would pick up if there was a further markdown in valuations, both commercial and residential properties. 

• The industry needs to keep adapting and stop over-focusing on the traditional sectors.

• Greater leadership across the industry is required.

• More needs to be done to tap into the huge defined contribution pension fund sector.

• It’s no longer the time for talking. It’s the time for action! 

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Staying Relevant

• For ardent supporters of real estate investment, today’s issue is a tough read.

• Bear highlights the sector’s hugely disappointing short and long term absolute and comparative returns.

• As a result, he is not surprised that property is now at the bottom of the new fundraising pack.

• In an institutional world where private equity, venture capital, credit, infrastructure, and real estate are all vying for the same funds, the prospects for an early uptick in property’s fortunes are weak.

• Bull, probably tired from staying up too late to watch the football, nods off just as Bear’s miserable pitch reaches a crescendo.

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The Green Retreat

• Bull & Bear bemoan the unpredictable English weather, the dire state of the Lord's cricket pitch, and the mis-guided retreat from global climate and ESG commitments.

• The pair are concerned that the current ESG backlash, led by Trump's US administration, is a step backwards just as we face up to the impacts of unprecedented global warming.  

• Bear, however, is not concerned by the negative political noise and believes occupiers and institutional capital will continue to drive the ESG agenda in the UK.

• With occupiers and investors prioritising sustainability, they are convinced that investing in sustainable, climate-resilient assets will deliver better long-term property performance. 

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Walking the Talk

• Bull & Bear are very excited about the Boost Summer Walk 2026, which takes place on Friday 3rd July. 

• This year, the walk will take in all of the River Thames' iconic bridges, as well as some fantastic sporting venues, leading Bull & Bear to discuss how many sports clubs are looking to utilise their stadium infrastructure to growing revenue streams outside of matchdays.

• Bear is quick to warn that whilst brand-new stadium complexes might look great and undoubtedly help drive income and ultimately long-term value for sports clubs, it must not come at the expense of the town centre and local communities. 

• Brentford FC, where the walk begins, is a shining example of how to invest in the community as well as growing the club's revenue through a new stadium.

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Spring Forecast Update

• The negative impact on gilt yields caused by the latest national and global traumas has caused a wide division of opinion between our two protagonists.

• Bear falls just short of believing that the end of the world is nigh, but all Bull can see are great opportunities.

• Each of them set out their stalls and ultimately reach a working compromise.

• They settle on a 12-month All Property Total Return Forecast for (calendar) 2026 of 6.5%.

• But this only on the understanding that Bull can reinstate his previous ultra-bullish 2026 forecast of 10.5% for next year.

• Bull and Bear will be taking next weekend off to celebrate the Spring Bank Holiday.

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Residential Reform

• Bull and Bear discuss the UK housing market and most particularly, the changes that came into force with effect from 1 May with the introduction of The Renters’ Rights Act.

• The Act has been called the most significant reset of private renting in a generation.

• From 1 May, all residential tenancies will become periodic tenancies from the outset, meaning that tenants can no longer be locked into a fixed-term and, crucially, cannot be removed by a simple ‘no-fault’ eviction notice.

• Bull argues that the Act has fundamentally altered the long-established assumptions when it comes to residential investment, whether it be assumptions about tenure length, tenant mobility, exit strategy and tenant turnover. 

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Beating the drum for London

• After a breakfast meeting with some influential real estate professionals, Bear is convinced that 'Brand London' requires a re-boot.

• As the capital's new, self-appointed brand ambassador, Bear takes it upon himself to debunk some of the myths around crime, UK politics, and anti-business taxation policies that are holding back overseas investors. 

• Bull is only too happy to spell out the reasons why London is ranked 2nd in the St Bride's World Cities Index 2026.  

• But he is also spots an opportunity for 'home-grown' investors to seize the moment, whilst some of the overseas players sit on their heels. 

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London Infrastructure - On The Right Track?

• The tube strikes this week meant Bull's 'Love Work, Love Life, Love London' campaign got off to a rocky start, but Bear is quick to remind him that London still boasts a world-leading public transport system.

• The two consider what could be next on London's agenda and Bull unequivocally believes that Crossrail 2 - connecting south-west and north London - must be prioritised, especially after the resounding success the Elizabeth Line has had in promoting productivity and growth.

• Bear reminds Bull that politically, this may not be received well, and projects like Northern Powerhouse Rail must not fall by the wayside as a result.

• The two agree that both are essential to kickstarting UK productivity.

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London - World City 2026 - Part 2

• Even though London’s office market is recovering, the capital’s GDP growth and productivity are disappointing.

• As discussed last week, this is reflected in London being placed second behind New York in the St Bride’s World Cities Index 2026.

• With this in mind, Bear challenges Bull to champion a new campaign to reignite London’s growth.

• Bull is convinced that his upbeat promotional flyer will do the trick.

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London - World City 2026

• The results of the St Bride’s World Cities Index 2026 have been published and London has been ranked second again behind New York.

• It seems that the scores for business competitiveness and Government efficiency have let us down.

• Moreover, neither Bull nor Bear are happy that the UK has slipped into 29th place in the World Happiness Report - down from 19th last year.

• So, over this week and next, they discuss what needs to be done for London to recapture the number 1 spot.

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Residential Roadblocks

• Off the back of last week’s discussion about how the conflict in the Middle East was impacting the commercial property markets, Bull and Bear explore its impact on the residential markets. 

• There is little doubt that it has dented sentiment and has caused levels of turmoil in the mortgage market not seen since the disruption of the pandemic, or the infamous mini-Budget crisis in 2022. 

• Compounding the challenges currently being faced by the UK's housebuilders, was the publication this week of the Future Homes Standard. This sets out guidance for all new-build homes to include solar panels and heat pumps, or be connected to a heat network, by 2028. The consensus feeling is that these new standards will add even more red tape and cause construction costs to increase. 

• Bull and Bear have been given Easter Sunday off, so they will next be back with you on 12th April.

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Choking Point

• In a few short weeks, the US‑Iran conflict has already disrupted energy supplies and highlighted the fragility of the global economy.

• With UK 10-year gilt yields leaping to 5% on Friday, Bull & Bear assess how the markets have reacted and the implications for UK property investors.

• Development projects are most at risk, but the pair are comforted that property offers investors income resilience in moments of volatility.

• They both agree that striking a "deal" to bring the conflict to an end is an economic imperative for all parties.

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