Year-End Appraisal

  • Bull is in the doghouse for his consistently over-optimistic market projections for total returns in 2025.

  • His 10.5% forecast at the beginning of the year has proven to be way above the current IPF Consensus of 7.1%.

  • Bull is happy to blame everyone (other than himself) for his over-exuberance and is stubbornly unrepentant.   

  • Bear compares the state of the current market with the 1990s and predicts a grey outlook for the next 5 years. Neither good, nor bad. Just grey.

  • Despite everything, the spread of their respective 5-year total return forecasts, at 8.00% to 10.50% is surprisingly close … and positive.

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