Bull has returned from four days at the Paralympic Games in Paris and is full of ‘joie de vivre’.
He compares the warm, welcoming and uplifting spirit in the City of Light and Love with the current rather despondent mood in London.
After a childish game of ‘one-upmanship’ as to which is the better sports city/country, our two protagonists settle down to compare the property fundamentals of each.
After a close-run tie-breaker, London just pips Paris to the post. (Well, there’s a surprise!)
Ahead of their forthcoming summer recess, Bull and Bear meet up to put the world to right and conclude there are reasons to be optimistic.
There are signs that market conditions are improving. Property capital values are showing signs of stabilisation. Positive total returns have reappeared at the All-Property level. Results from the CBRE European Lender Intentions Survey also show that lenders expect to deploy more capital later this year.
Bull and Bear's hope (and expectation) is that when everyone returns to their desks in September, there should be far greater activity than we’ve seen for some time.
Bull and Bear will return on 1 September 2024. Enjoy your Summer!
Bull has been in Yorkshire this week, and has returned with the exciting news of plans to build a Mass Transit System (MTS), connecting Leeds with its neighbouring towns.
He is quick to remind Bear of the significant impact a MTS can have on a region, citing London's Midtown (Crossrail) and Manchester (Tram System) as case studies.
With strong underlying economic and property fundamentals already in place across Leeds and Yorkshire, Bull is adamant that NOW is the time to invest if you want to reap the rewards of the MTS.
Enjoy your Sunday.
As the nation holds its breath ahead of tonight's Euro 2024 final in Berlin, Bull & Bear distract themselves by discussing the likely impact of the Labour Administration on the UK housing market.
The new Government has wasted no time in setting out ambitious policies to deliver much-needed housing by relaxing rules around the development of the Green Belt and building new towns.
However, the pair conclude that Labour are likely to run into many of the same obstacles as the Tories did in their stated bid to deliver a generational increase in housing supply.
Enjoy your Sunday. And come on England!
Over the past 25 years, UK pension funds have radically re-shaped their investment portfolios. Over 50% is now invested in bonds.
Both the private equity and property markets are constipated, and ongoing illiquidity is beginning to cause some snags in funding new initiatives.
Amongst a number of potential ‘wow-ing’ ideas, Bull optimistically suggests a switch in allocations out bonds to help get the sectors moving again.
Enjoy your Sunday.
After a tough week of TV watching, including the England football team and the final Sunak vs Starmer election debate, Bull and Bear meet up to discuss the property-related policies included in the manifestos of the main political parties.
Consistent themes addressed by all the parties include unlocking the housing market (and addressing the need to increase the supply of housing), planning reform and increasing the rate of economic growth in the UK.
It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that the degree to which the various parties have made commitments to increase housing delivery differs significantly!
Research suggests, however, that regardless of which political party ends up in power, there isn’t any real difference to the overall performance of the UK real estate market.
Enjoy your Sunday.
Bull & Bear are focused on two important puzzles.
Why are Gareth Southgate's England team struggling to find any semblance of form in the Group stages of Euro 2024?
And why has the UK's productivity stagnated so sharply since the Global Financial Crisis?
Bull believes Anthony Gordon holds the key for the England team, whilst Bear turns to an in-depth report by Bidwells ('The Productivity Engine') to understand why a lack of investment is holding back the UK.
Despite Scotland's disappointing performance at the Euro 2024 opener on Friday night, Bull has been channelling his inner-Scot this weekend.
Bear questions his somewhat dubious ancient connections, but asks for a run-down on the property market.
Bull reveals that with consistent rental growth across the board, yields sharpening in some sectors, and the prospect of Scottish Independence looking increasingly unlikely, now could be a very good time to invest in Edinburgh.
Enjoy your Sunday.
Bull has been invited to be a panellist at the upcoming Annual AREF conference and needs some ammunition. His topic is the resilience of property and property funds.
Both he and Bear agree that, over the past fifty years, the sector has successfully pivoted in line with changing socio-economic demands and are generally happy with the resilience shown by the sector.
But Bear warns that the future is less straightforward, not least as the asset classes which are likely to be in most demand (healthcare, retirement living etc) are currently very heavily influenced by government policy.
Enjoy your Sunday.
Following a shopping trip during half-term, Bull and Bear meet up to discuss the state of the UK shopping centre market.
On the back of results released by Hammerson and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, there is increasing evidence that best-in-class retail space is starting to recover and that rents are growing in the right locations. But for non-prime centres, it still remains a very difficult story.
Although investors are increasingly seeing opportunities in the best-positioned schemes, the UK shopping centre investment market can best be described as ‘muted’, with Q1 2024 being one the five quietest first quarters in the last thirty years.
Enjoy your Sunday
After attending a talk on the future of real estate investment management, Bull is in a reflective mood.
The pair conclude that the need for active asset management has never been so acute, especially as the real estate landscape is breaking up into different asset types, which require specialist operators.
However, the inexorable trend towards investment in operational (management-intensive) sectors will also force investment managers to adopt new models to harness operator expertise and deliver an enhanced level of customer service.
Enjoy your Bank Holiday Sunday.
Bull has just returned from his week in Singapore and is looking slightly worse-for-wear. Bear wastes no time in asking him how he got on.
Bull provides a short insight into Singapore, its domestic property market and most importantly, whether their family offices have any interest in the UK.
He concludes that while investors remain interested in UK property, they'd like to see interest rates come down before they give the green light to investing again.
Enjoy your Sunday.
After last week's analysis of the UK's occupational property market, Bull has moved on to Part 2 of his pitch to the Singaporean investors he's flying out this weekend to meet.
In his pitch, he discusses the winners of St Bride's top UK Key Cities, the changing age demographics of the UK and the forecasts for Total Returns over the next few years.
His conclusion is, unsurprisingly, that now is the perfect time to invest!
Have a happy Sunday.
Bull is heading back to Singapore next weekend in an attempt to encourage some Singaporean investors to invest in the UK Property Market.
Bear is interested to hear his pitch, and more specifically, what sectors he'll be recommending.
Bull's top picks include; London offices, London retail, South East industrials and a bit of regional PBSA and selective residential too.
This week he delves into the occupational story for those sectors.
Enjoy your Bank Holiday weekend.
